| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Mamdani will make an official visit to the White House before April. Such a visit would signal formal engagement between the individual and the administration and can affect media coverage and related political dynamics.
Visits to the White House typically follow an invitation from the White House, a scheduled meeting or event, or a clear policy/diplomatic purpose; the individual's public role, relationships with administration officials, and recent news all shape the likelihood of a visit. Because this contract closes before a specific calendar cutoff, timing and official announcements matter more than informal contacts or media mentions.
Market prices reflect participants’ aggregated expectations given available information and change as new announcements arrive; they are a dynamic indicator of perceived likelihood rather than a certainty or official statement about what will happen.
For this market, a 'visit' normally means physical presence on White House grounds for an official meeting, event, or announced engagement that is verifiable by White House schedules, press releases, pool reports, or other official documentation. Private or unverified encounters that lack an official record typically do not meet resolution standards.
The contract’s resolution relies on the market’s specified cutoff (commonly before 00:00 on April 1 in the time zone stated in the contract). If the market text is ambiguous, exchanges use their published resolution rules—check the market description or contact exchange support for the exact timestamp used.
Accepted evidence typically includes official White House press releases or schedule entries, time-stamped photos or pool reporting from accredited news organizations, or direct statements from official White House channels. If evidence is disputed, the exchange’s arbitration or resolution policy determines the outcome.
Likely triggers include a formal White House invitation for policy consultations, participation in a scheduled White House event or ceremony, coordinated announcements tied to administration priorities, or high-level meetings arranged by allied officials or agencies.
Track the White House public schedule and press office releases, Mamdani’s official communications and social media, reputable national news outlets and pool reports, and announcements from any organizations facilitating the meeting; official statements are the most reliable signals for market participants.