| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Mamdani will cause the minimum wage in the relevant jurisdiction to reach $30 per hour before 2027. The outcome matters for workers, employers, municipal/state budgets, and for setting precedent on ambitious wage policy.
Minimum wage increases can be enacted by executives, legislatures, city councils, or voter initiatives depending on local law; the named official’s authority and the political landscape determine the feasible paths. Historical context includes debates over balancing living-wage goals against employment and fiscal effects, plus recent trends of phased increases and regional variation in wage floors.
Market prices aggregate participants’ views about the likelihood of a $30 minimum-wage increase being legally implemented before 2027; they update as new information—proposals, votes, budget analyses, legal rulings, or election outcomes—arrives.
The market counts a legally effective change that results in a statutory or regulatory minimum wage of $30 per hour (or higher) within the jurisdiction linked to Mamdani, taking effect on or before December 31, 2026; informal proposals or statements alone do not qualify.
The event refers to the named individual in the title; the decisive factor is whether that person, through their official authority or by successfully influencing the lawful process (executive action, council/legislative vote, or an initiative that becomes effective), causes a $30 minimum wage to be enacted before 2027.
Yes—if the outcome is a legally binding increase to $30 that becomes effective before the 2027 cutoff in the jurisdiction associated with Mamdani, the mechanism (legislative, executive, or ballot) is what matters for the market outcome, regardless of the individual’s personal stance.
It means the effective date of the $30 minimum wage must be on or before December 31, 2026; proposed laws that set future effective dates after that day would not satisfy the event.
Key movers include formal policy proposals or draft ordinances, official votes or signed enacted measures, budget analyses showing fiscal impacts, major public endorsements or opposition from labor and business groups, legal rulings on preemption or implementation, and election results that change the governing coalition.