| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| During Trump's term | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un will physically visit the United States while Donald Trump is serving as president. Such a visit would be a high-profile diplomatic event with implications for US–North Korea relations and broader regional security.
Trump and Kim have met in person before in third countries and at the DMZ, creating an unusual precedent of summit diplomacy between the two leaders. No North Korean head of state has historically traveled to the US, and any in‑person visit would require overcoming legal, security, and diplomatic barriers including sanctions and travel permissions.
Market prices reflect the aggregated expectations of traders based on public information and private assessment; they update as new developments (announcements, negotiations, incidents) occur. Prices are not guarantees but indicate how participants currently weigh the likelihood of a visit given available information.
For this event, a 'visit' means Kim Jong-Un physically travels to and is present in territory of the United States for an official or publicized meeting; meetings held in third countries, border sites (e.g., DMZ), or virtual/video summits do not qualify.
The time window refers to any date on which Donald Trump is serving as President of the United States; the visit must occur while he holds that office. The market closes TBD and will use that office tenure as the relevant timeframe.
Key steps include formal diplomatic agreements or invitations, clearance of travel and security arrangements, coordination between US and North Korean protocol offices, and resolution or suspension of sanctions or legal obstacles that would prevent travel.
They have met previously at summits held outside the US and at the DMZ, demonstrating mutual willingness to meet in person; however, those precedents do not remove the unique legal, security, and political barriers to a North Korean leader visiting US soil.
Direct signals include an official invitation or acceptance, confirmation of logistics (dates, venues), sanctioned travel clearances, sudden breakthroughs in negotiations (e.g., reciprocal concessions), or conversely, escalatory incidents that make travel impossible.