| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Justice Samuel Alito will leave the U.S. Supreme Court (creating a vacancy). It matters because a retirement would let the sitting president nominate a successor and could change the Court's long‑term ideological balance.
Alito is a long‑serving Associate Justice appointed in 2006; retirements of Supreme Court justices are relatively rare but politically consequential. Timing decisions by justices often reflect health, age, internal Court dynamics, and the surrounding political calendar, including which party controls the presidency and Senate.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders' assessments of available public and private signals and update as new information arrives; they are indicators of market sentiment, not certainties, and can change quickly when relevant news appears.
Contract settlement depends on the market’s specific rules: typically 'retire' means the justice leaves active service and the seat becomes vacant. Check the market contract for whether announcements, effective resignation dates, or other conditions determine settlement.
That depends on the market’s settlement criteria—some contracts require the seat to be vacated by a certain date, while others accept an official public announcement. Verify the event’s precise wording and settlement rules on the platform.
If the president and Senate are of the same party, a justice may be more likely to time a retirement to ensure a like‑minded successor; opposing control can create incentives to delay. These political dynamics shape both the justice’s calculus and market expectations.
Justices often consider personal health, age, timing of favorable administrations, and the Court’s docket when deciding to retire; however, individual decisions vary and past patterns are informative but not determinative.
Movers typically include official announcements, reliable investigative reporting, medical or court attendance disclosures, high‑profile travel or absence from oral arguments, and statements from White House or Senate leaders regarding nominations and confirmations.