| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether José María Balcázar will be formally impeached. The outcome matters because impeachment proceedings can alter political power, policy direction, and the stability of the governing coalition in his jurisdiction.
Impeachment processes differ by country and office: some require an initial legislative vote to begin proceedings, others require referral from an oversight body or prosecutor. The likelihood of impeachment in practice depends on recent allegations or investigations, the disposition of the legislature, party discipline, and historical precedent for removal proceedings in the relevant political system.
Market prices aggregate traders' expectations about whether formal impeachment proceedings will be initiated under the event's resolution rules; they summarize information and sentiment but are not legal determinations.
For this market, 'impeached' refers to the formal initiation of impeachment proceedings as defined by the event's official resolution criteria — typically the filing or successful vote in the legislative or oversight body that begins a removal process. Consult the event's resolution text for the exact institutional trigger that will be used to settle the market.
The market will resolve according to the settlement window or close date specified on the event page; if the close date is listed as TBD, follow official updates from the market operator for the applicable cutoff that determines whether impeachment occurred in time to count.
A resignation is not the same as a formal impeachment action. Whether a resignation counts depends on the event's resolution rules; typically, resignation before the formal initiation of impeachment means the impeachment trigger did not occur, so it would not be counted as 'impeached' unless the market text states otherwise.
Court rulings and indictments are separate legal processes and do not by themselves constitute impeachment. They can, however, increase the likelihood that a legislature initiates impeachment proceedings. The market counts only the specific legislative or institutional action defined in the event’s rules.
Watch for formal complaints or referrals to the legislature, public release of investigative reports, key statements or whip counts from party leaders, scheduling of legislative sessions or hearings, and any official votes or filings that meet the event’s resolution criteria.