| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 9, 2026. It matters for short-term planning and for traders who use weather forecasts to express expectations about a specific-day precipitation outcome.
Day-to-day precipitation in a coastal mid‑latitude city like NYC is driven by the passage of synoptic systems (low pressure, fronts), the thermal profile of the atmosphere, and mesoscale features such as coastal fronts. Early March is a transition month with variable conditions—both rain and snow are possible depending on temperatures and storm track—and forecast skill improves substantially as the target day approaches. Settlement will follow the market’s published terms, which specify the observing station and measurement criteria.
Market odds are the aggregation of traders’ views and update as forecasts, models, and observations change; interpret them as a real‑time consensus signal rather than a guarantee of outcome.
The contract’s settlement definition is specified on the market page; typically it refers to measurable liquid precipitation reported at the designated official observing station during the local calendar day. Check the event page for the exact measurement threshold and whether a trace qualifies.
The market page will list the official reporting station or area used for settlement. Common choices for NYC weather contracts include stations such as Central Park, LaGuardia, or JFK, but you must confirm the specific station named in this contract.
This event currently lists its close time as TBD. Markets like this typically close according to the schedule in the market terms (often before or at the start of the target local day), and final settlement is done after the designated station’s official daily observations are published—check the market page for exact closing and settlement timing.
Short-range NWP models and their ensembles (for timing and amount), high-resolution convection-allowing models, radar and satellite for real‑time verification, and official National Weather Service products are the most relevant. Monitoring updates in the 0–72 hour window will capture the largest forecast shifts.
Climatological records for early March help set expectations about typical variability and the relative likelihood of liquid versus frozen precipitation, but single-day outcomes are driven by the synoptic situation for that date. Combine historical context with current-season trends and short-range model guidance for the best view.