| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $126K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 8, 2026. It matters because short-term weather events affect transportation, outdoor plans, and local commerce, and this market aggregates trader expectations about that single calendar day.
March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., when late-winter storms, coastal systems, and early spring fronts can all produce precipitation in NYC. Climatic context (warmer winters in recent decades) and the timing of synoptic systems both influence whether a given date sees rain versus snow or no precipitation. Note that March 8, 2026 is also the date the U.S. shifts to daylight saving time, which can affect timestamping and observational reporting.
Market odds reflect traders’ aggregation of available meteorological information, forecasts, and risk preferences rather than perfect forecasts; they should be interpreted as a market-based snapshot of expectations at a given time. Always check the market’s settlement notes to understand how observations will be verified.
Settlement periods vary by market operator; confirm the market’s official definition (for example, a calendar day in local time, UTC, or a specified 24‑hour window). Because March 8, 2026 includes the daylight saving time change, check whether the platform uses local standard time, local wall-clock time, or UTC for timestamps.
The market will use whatever authoritative meteorological source(s) the operator specifies in the event rules (commonly NWS/NOAA observations, local official weather stations such as those reporting for NYC, or consolidated national datasets). Verify the event’s settlement clause for the exact source.
That depends on the operator’s measurement threshold described in the settlement rules. Some markets require measurable precipitation (e.g., >0.00 inches or a report of precipitation), while others may define different thresholds; consult the event’s settlement criteria.
Because clocks spring forward that date in the U.S., observational timestamps and any clock-based windows can be ambiguous unless the market specifies its time standard. Traders should confirm whether the market references local wall-clock time, local standard time, or UTC and adjust their interpretation of hourly forecasts accordingly.
Historical climatology gives a baseline for what’s typical on that calendar day (frequency of precipitation, typical temperatures), but single-day outcomes are strongly driven by the specific synoptic situation. Use historical context alongside up-to-date forecasts and short‑range models for decision making.