| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 43% | 19¢ | 73¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be recorded in New York City on March 7, 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes are predictable as the date approaches and markets aggregate real-time information from forecasts and traders.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period between winter and spring, so weather can range from cold, snow-producing systems to milder, rain-bearing storms. Historical climatology and recent seasonal trends (including warmer winters in many years) influence whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, and rapidly evolving large-scale weather patterns will determine conditions for this specific day.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about whether official meteorological observations will record liquid precipitation in NYC on that calendar date; interpret prices as the market’s real-time summary of available weather data and forecasts rather than as a definitive forecast.
Settlements typically rely on official meteorological observations for the specified NYC reporting station(s) and the contract’s definition; 'rain' usually means measurable liquid precipitation recorded by those official instruments on the calendar date. Check the contract rules for the exact station and measurement criteria.
Most contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 24:00 local time) for the designated official observation site, with settlement based on National Weather Service or other official station reports. Confirm the platform’s event rules for the precise settlement window and time zone.
As March 7 approaches, new observations (satellite, radar, radiosondes) and frequent high-resolution model runs will reduce uncertainty; traders update positions in response to those changes, so market prices can shift materially in the 3–5 days and especially in the 24–48 hours before the date.
Whether snowfall or mixed precipitation counts depends on the contract definition. Some contracts count any measurable liquid-equivalent precipitation as 'rain,' while others require liquid precipitation specifically. Check the event’s official settlement language to see how frozen precipitation is treated.
Early March is variable: the region can experience both colder, snow-prone storms and milder, rain-bearing systems. Longer-term warming trends have shifted many winter-season precipitation events toward liquid phases more often than in past decades, but each event is driven primarily by short-term synoptic patterns that develop in the days before March 7.