| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be observed in New York City on March 6, 2026. It matters because short-term weather events affect travel, outdoor plans, and localized economic activity in the city.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period when precipitation can occur as rain or snow depending on the temperature profile; synoptic storms and coastal systems are the main drivers. Traders will track weather model runs, radar, and official forecasts as the date approaches to update expectations.
Odds in this market reflect the collective assessment of participants given available observations and forecasts; they change as new model runs and observations arrive. For final determination of the event outcome, consult the exchange's settlement rules and the specified official observation source.
The market's settlement definition is set by the event rules on the exchange; it typically depends on official meteorological observations (for example, a measurable precipitation report) from a named data source. Check the KALSHI event page for the precise definition and threshold that will be used.
The designated observation site (such as an official weather station in NYC) should be specified in the event's settlement rules. If the page does not name a station, consult the exchange's default station policy or contact support for clarification.
Most weather contracts use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the specified date, but the exact time window and time zone will be defined in the event rules—verify the KALSHI event details to confirm.
Settlement typically occurs after the official observations for the day are published by the designated agency; the exchange will state its settlement timeline, which may allow a short period for data reporting and verification. Check the event page for the stated settlement schedule.
Traders commonly monitor numerical weather prediction models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), ensemble spreads, national weather service forecasts and observations, radar and satellite imagery, and short-term nowcasts; local climatology and recent observations are also used to inform positions as the date nears.