| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This contract asks whether measurable rain will be recorded in New York City on March 5, 2026. It matters to anyone with weather-sensitive plans or exposure (transportation, events, construction, retail) and to traders assessing short-term weather risk for that specific date.
Early March in New York City is a transition period between winter and spring, so the city can see a wide range of outcomes from dry, cool days to rain or mixed precipitation driven by coastal storms. Synoptic-scale storm tracks, the position of the jet stream, and mesoscale details (like a coastal front) commonly determine whether a given day ends up wet or dry. Forecast skill improves substantially in the 1–3 day window, so information released close to the date often drives market movement.
Market prices aggregate participants' judgments and react to new observations and model updates; use them as a dynamic indicator of collective expectation rather than a definitive forecast. Because weather forecasts evolve, prices will typically change as new model guidance and observations become available.
Settlement will use the definition and official observational dataset specified by the exchange for this contract: typically measurable liquid precipitation recorded at the designated official reporting station for New York City on the settlement date. Check the market rules on the contract page for the precise definition (including how drizzle/trace amounts are treated).
The contract will resolve using the specific official reporting location named by the exchange (the market page or rulebook lists the exact station or dataset used for settlement). Traders should consult the contract details to confirm which meteorological station or dataset is authoritative for this event.
Resolution is based on precipitation recorded during the settlement period defined for Mar 5 in the contract rules (the 24-hour local date or another specified window). Precipitation that occurs within that settlement window at the official reporting site is what will determine the outcome.
The exchange's settlement procedures address missing or conflicting data, typically by using a designated backup data source or an alternate official observation. Consult the contract's resolution rules for the hierarchy of data sources and the protocol the exchange will follow in such cases.
As new model runs, satellite/radar observations, and surface reports arrive, traders update their views and prices adjust accordingly; forecasts produced in the 24–72 hour range before the date often have the largest impact on market movement because model agreement and local observations become more informative.