| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $71K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable precipitation will be recorded in New York City on March 4, 2026; it matters to traders, event planners, commuters, and city services that respond to daily weather risks. Market prices synthesize many information sources into a single, tradable indicator of how participants expect the day’s weather to evolve.
Early March in New York City is a transitional period when storms can bring rain, mixed precipitation, or snow depending on the exact track and temperature profile; year-to-year outcomes are variable. Advances in numerical weather prediction and increased availability of high-resolution short-range models have improved day‑of forecasts, but synoptic shifts and timing differences can still change outcomes rapidly. Longer-term climate trends affect precipitation patterns and intensity, which can influence baseline expectations for springtime precipitation.
Prediction market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders, integrating forecasts, observational data, and recent model guidance; they update as new information arrives. Treat prices as a dynamic summary of current expectations rather than a deterministic forecast.
Resolution depends on the exchange’s official contract language and designated observing station(s); typically the outcome is determined from official precipitation measurements at an authorized NYC observation site over the local calendar day. Check the KALSHI contract page for the precise station and time window used for settlement.
Trading close and settlement timing are set by the exchange and may be updated on the contract page; outcome announcement follows verification of the official observation data after Mar 4, 2026 and any stated verification window or contestability period in the contract rules.
Whether snow or sleet counts depends on the market’s definition of 'rain' in the contract; many weather markets use measurable liquid-equivalent precipitation or any measurable precipitation from the official station. Confirm the contract’s definition to know which precipitation types are included.
Past March 4 observations provide climatological context and show how variable early March can be, but single-day historical frequency is only a baseline; near-term model guidance and current atmospheric conditions are typically more informative for the tradeable outcome.
High-impact updates include short-range deterministic and ensemble model trends (e.g., 0–72 hour models), HRRR or other convection-resolving guidance, NWS forecast changes and statements, radar/satellite imagery as systems approach, and local surface/airport observations that refine timing and temperatures.