| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether measurable precipitation will occur in New York City on March 30, 2026. It serves as a financial instrument for hedging against weather-related risks or speculating on meteorological events.
March in New York City marks the transition from late winter to early spring, a period characterized by volatile atmospheric conditions. Historical climate data for this specific date shows a mix of clear skies, rain, and occasionally late-season snow, driven by the passage of frontal systems common to the Northeast corridor. Because local weather patterns are subject to long-range climate variability, this event captures the inherent uncertainty of seasonal forecasts.
The market prices reflect the aggregate expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of precipitation, incorporating the latest long-range meteorological models and climate indices.
The official determination will be based on data recorded by the National Weather Service station located in Central Park, New York City.
This market typically tracks any measurable precipitation, meaning a recording of 0.01 inches or greater during the 24-hour period of the date.
Yes, unless otherwise specified by the market rules, all forms of liquid-equivalent precipitation are generally categorized under the umbrella of 'measurable precipitation'.
A 'trace' of precipitation is typically defined as less than 0.01 inches and is generally not considered 'measurable' for the purpose of settling this market.
While climate outlooks provide a statistical baseline for the season, specific daily precipitation is subject to 'chaos theory' in meteorology, making accurate predictions difficult until the date approaches.