| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 3, 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes affect travel, transit operations, outdoor events, and local economic activity.
Early March in the northeastern U.S. is a transitional period when the region can experience anything from cold snow events to mild rainy days, depending on storm tracks and air masses. Forecasts several days out rely on global and regional numerical weather prediction models, while observations and ensemble spreads tighten expectations as the date approaches.
Market prices reflect the aggregated view of traders, forecasters, and available data at a given moment; they move as new model runs, observations, and analyses arrive. For settlement specifics, consult the event page and its designated official observation source.
Settlement typically requires measurable liquid precipitation recorded by the event's designated official observation source. Check the market's settlement rules on the event page for the precise definition (for example, any recorded liquid precipitation above trace at the specified station(s)).
The event page or settlement clause will name the official station(s) or data source used for determination (commonly National Weather Service observing sites). Verify that page to see whether Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK, or another official station is specified.
Most markets use the calendar day in local time (00:00 to 23:59:59 local Eastern Time) for the date in question; confirm the event's settlement text to be certain of the exact time zone and cutoffs.
Treatment depends on the market's settlement definition. If the official time window is the calendar day of March 3, only precipitation recorded within that window typically counts; check the event's settlement rules for handling continuous events spanning the boundary.
Early March is climatologically variable in NYC, with potential for both cold, wintry systems and milder, rainy conditions. Use historical context to understand typical variability, but rely on current model guidance and short-range observations as the date approaches for forecasting the specific day.