| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 29, 2026, a question relevant to event planners, transportation managers, and weather-aware traders. Outcomes affect short-term operational decisions and provide a way to hedge or speculate on weather risk for that specific date.
Late March is a transitional time in the Northeast U.S., when storms, frontal passages, and lingering cold-air intrusions all remain possible; climatology alone is a limited guide because synoptic weather systems drive day-to-day differences. Forecast skill increases closer to the date as models assimilate observations and real-time radar/satellite data, so market expectations often shift as the event approaches.
Market prices represent the crowd's aggregated view of whether measurable rain will occur, incorporating model forecasts, observations, and news. Use market movements together with official forecasts (e.g., National Weather Service products) to inform decisions rather than relying on either source alone.
The market's settlement definition will specify what qualifies as rain; typically these events use measurable liquid precipitation recorded at designated official observation site(s) within the defined area during the local calendar day. Always check the event page for the authoritative measurement threshold and whether mixed precipitation types (sleet, freezing rain) are included or excluded.
The event rules should list the official observation station(s) or data source used for settlement; many weather markets rely on one or more National Weather Service/airport stations within the five boroughs. Review the event description to see which stations or dataset the exchange will use.
Most markets use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) in the specified city unless the event rules state a different window. Confirm the exact local-time boundaries and time zone on the event page so you know when precipitation would count.
This particular event shows a close time of TBD; the platform will publish the market close and settlement timing on the event page. Settlements are typically made after official observations for the date are available and may take hours to a few days depending on data verification procedures.
Settlement usually relies on recognized meteorological data such as National Weather Service (NOAA) observational stations, airport ASOS/AWOS reports, or other specified official datasets named in the event terms. The event listing will state the exact source(s) used for the official determination.