| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 28, 2026, a single-day weather outcome with practical implications for outdoor plans, transportation, and short-term operations. It provides a way to aggregate expectations about that specific day's weather into a single, tradable signal.
Late March is a transitional season for the northeastern United States, when storm tracks and surface temperatures can produce a range of precipitation types and fast-changing conditions. Forecast uncertainty several days out is driven by storm timing and track; longer-term climate trends have also increased variability in seasonal weather patterns.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders reacting to evolving forecasts and observations, and should be viewed alongside official meteorological forecasts and the market's stated settlement rules. They indicate market sentiment at a point in time, not a deterministic outcome.
Settlement depends on the market's official rules; typically it means any measurable liquid precipitation recorded at the designated official observation site(s) for New York City during the observation period. Check the event's settlement specification for the exact wording and any minimum measurement threshold.
Most markets use the local calendar day at the designated observation station (midnight-to-midnight Eastern Time), but you must confirm the precise observation window and time zone in the market's settlement rules.
The market's settlement terms will specify the authoritative data source and station(s)—often an official NWS/NOAA observation site in the New York City area. Consult the market page or rulebook to see which station(s) are used.
Settlement typically follows the observation day once the market operator retrieves and verifies the official observation from the designated source; the market page and operator announcements will publish the verified outcome and settlement timing. Check the event listing for any specific timelines.
Monitor medium- and short-range model runs for storm track and timing, high-resolution convection-allowing models for localized precipitation, surface pressure charts and frontal forecasts, temperature trends (which affect rain vs. snow), and live radar/observations as the day approaches—changes in these indicators typically drive updates in market assessments.