| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be recorded in New York City on March 27, 2026. It matters because daily precipitation affects travel, events, and local economic activity and the market aggregates participant expectations about that outcome.
Late March in NYC is a seasonal transition month with high variability: some years feature springlike rain events while others remain dry or cold. Short‑range weather models, synoptic storm tracks, and local temperature profiles will be the primary information drivers in the days before March 27.
Market odds reflect the collective judgment of traders based on available forecasts, observations, and model guidance, and they update as new information arrives. Use the market signal together with official meteorological forecasts and model ensembles to form expectations.
The event's settlement definition specifies what counts as rain—typically measurable liquid precipitation recorded by the designated observing station. Some contracts explicitly exclude frozen precipitation or require a minimum measurable amount, so check the contract text for the authoritative definition.
The market's settlement rules name the authoritative source (for example, a National Weather Service station or a specified dataset). Confirm the designated station or dataset on the event page or in the contract before trading.
The contract specifies the exact time window and time zone used for settlement; many weather markets use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the chosen station, but you must check the event's rules to be sure.
Seasonal and long‑range signals give limited guidance early on; short‑range model guidance and ensemble forecasts in the several days before the date provide the strongest and most actionable signals for traders.
Settlement for mixed precipitation depends on the contract's definition of 'rain' and the measurement at the designated station. If the contract counts any recorded liquid precipitation at that station during the window, that will determine settlement; consult the event rules for handling mixed or marginal cases and any arbitration procedures.