| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 26, 2026. The outcome matters to people and businesses that plan around single-day weather risks (events, transportation, agriculture, retail).
Late March in New York City is a transitional month with frequent swings between dry and wet conditions; single-day rain outcomes depend on passing frontal systems, coastal storms, and local mesoscale effects. Long-term climate trends can change the frequency and intensity of precipitation but do not determine day-to-day weather, so short-term meteorological forecasts remain the primary drivers of this event.
Market prices reflect the consensus expectation of whether measurable rain will be reported for the specified NYC observation period and update as new forecasts and observations become available. Treat those prices as real-time information that complements official weather forecasts and station data.
The market resolves according to the official resolution source specified on the event page; in practice, 'rain' is typically defined as measurable liquid precipitation recorded by the designated official meteorological station or dataset. Check the event page for the exact rule and whether drizzle, freezing rain, or mixed precipitation are included or excluded.
The observation window (for example, 00:00 to 23:59 local time) is set in the event's resolution rules on the market page. Because platforms may specify local vs. UTC cutoffs or cite a particular station's reporting day, verify the event page for the precise start/end times and time zone.
The event page lists the official data source used for settlement (often a NOAA/NWS station or specified airport or NYC Central Park observation). If you need certainty, consult the market's resolution clause to see which station or aggregated dataset will be authoritative.
The market follows its contingency and adjudication rules: common options include using a designated backup station, nearby official observations, or archived reanalysis products until final verification. The event page or platform rules describe the fallback procedure and any adjudicator authority.
The market's close time and settlement date are specified on the event page; if the close is listed as TBD the platform will publish or announce a close time prior to settlement. Settlement typically occurs after the official observation for the specified date is published and verified by the designated data source.