| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be recorded in New York City on March 25, 2026; it matters because short-term weather outcomes affect travel, outdoor plans, and local services. Traders use available forecasts and observations to express their expectations ahead of that date.
Late March is a transitional time in the Northeast U.S., when both lingering winter systems and early spring storms can produce rain. New York City’s precipitation on a single date depends on the position of synoptic systems and local-scale influences; long-term climate trends have altered the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events but not the daily unpredictability of weather.
Market odds aggregate traders’ interpretations of forecasts, model outputs, and changing observations; they update as new model runs and real-world data arrive. Use the odds as a real-time snapshot of market expectations, not as a substitute for official meteorological forecasts or warnings.
Settlement will follow the market’s published contract terms and designated official data source; typically that means measurable liquid precipitation recorded by the specified meteorological station(s) in New York City on March 25, 2026. Consult the event’s settlement rules on the platform to confirm the exact definition and source.
The market’s settlement rules specify the official data provider and station(s) (for example, National Weather Service/NOAA observation sites or other named stations). Check the event page or contract documentation for the precise source and station list used for settlement.
The market will use the time window and time zone defined in its settlement terms—often the local calendar day in Eastern Time—but you should verify the exact start and end times in the event’s documentation to know which observations are included.
Whether trace amounts count depends on the settlement definition of ‘measurable precipitation’ in the contract. Many observational networks distinguish ‘trace’ from measurable amounts, so review the market’s rules to see how trace reports are treated.
Settlement follows the event’s defined criterion for ‘rain’: if the designated source reports liquid precipitation (rain) during the specified period it may count, but frozen or mixed types may not unless the contract’s definition includes them. Confirm the treatment of precipitation type in the market’s settlement terms.