| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be observed in New York City on March 24, 2026; it matters because precipitation on a specific date affects travel, events, and short-term economic and logistical decisions.
March in New York City is a transitional month where weather can swing between late-winter systems and early-spring conditions, producing rain, snow, or mixed precipitation depending on storm tracks and temperatures. Seasonal climate change has altered precipitation patterns and variability over the long run, but day-to-day outcomes are dominated by the timing and track of individual weather systems and model forecasts as the date approaches.
Market prices aggregate traders’ information and public forecasts and are updated as new model runs, radar, and observations arrive; interpret prices as a real-time consensus signal that evolves with incoming weather data and contract settlement rules.
Settlement depends on the event's contract language: it will specify which observing station(s) and what measurement threshold determine whether precipitation is recorded. Consult the market's official contract or settlement source to see the precise definition used for this event.
Resolution timing is tied to the contract and the availability of official observations after March 24; most weather contracts wait for the relevant official daily observation (typically published by the designated weather agency) before final settlement—check the event page for the exact settlement schedule.
Short-range model runs, high-resolution forecasts, and radar trends usually have the largest near-term impact: as model consensus and observations converge, market assessments typically shift to reflect the most recent credible forecasts and real-time data.
The contract should state the official observing location(s) used for settlement—options might include stations like Central Park, LaGuardia, or other designated official sites—because precipitation can vary across boroughs and between coastal and inland sites; verify the listed station(s) in the event rules.
Consider that late-March climatology in NYC includes a wide range of scenarios from cool, showery conditions to warmer, rainy days; year-to-year variability and the potential for coastal storm development mean traders should weigh both seasonal norms and recent weather model guidance rather than relying solely on long-term averages.