| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 23, 2026. The outcome matters for event planning, travel, outdoor work, and weather-sensitive financial positions.
Late March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., with a mix of winter storms and the first spring-like systems; NYC can see anything from dry, cool days to warm, rainy periods driven by coastal lows. Day-to-day probability depends heavily on the presence and track of synoptic systems such as cold fronts and coastal lows, and on the precise timing of those systems relative to the calendar day.
Market prices summarize the crowd's real-time expectations based on current forecasts and information; treat them as a dynamic, consensus signal rather than a guarantee of what will happen.
Settlement typically follows the event's official rule: measurable liquid precipitation recorded by the designated observation source on March 23, 2026; consult the market's event page for the precise definition and measurement threshold.
The market will name a specific official data source (for example a National Weather Service station or an airport observation); check the event page to see which station or agency is designated for settlement.
The event page lists the closing time (currently TBD); outcome settlement generally occurs after the designated station's daily observation for March 23 is published and verified according to the market's settlement rules.
The settlement follows the single designated observation point named in the market rules; if multiple stations are referenced those rules will explain the decision logic, so review the event details to know which point controls.
Large-scale model guidance and synoptic signals usually become useful several days out, with best deterministic skill inside roughly a 5–7 day window and useful probabilistic signals extending somewhat further; near-term nowcasts (hours to a day) are most reliable for exact timing and localized showers.