| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 22, 2026, providing a single, tradable claim about that calendar day’s precipitation. It matters to planners, transportation services, and anyone with weather-dependent activities in the city.
Late March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., where warm, moist Atlantic air can clash with lingering cold continental air, producing a range of outcomes from dry, chilly days to wet, unsettled spells. Weather on a specific March date depends heavily on the position of large-scale storm systems and the jet stream in the days immediately prior. This market aggregates trader expectations and forecast information into an easily observed price signal.
Market prices represent the consensus of participating traders given available information and are best interpreted as a real-time indicator of collective expectations, not a guarantee of outcome. Always compare market information with official forecasts and observational data as the event approaches.
The exchange’s published settlement rules define the precise criterion (for example, the observational source and any minimum measurement threshold). Traders should consult the market listing or the platform’s settlement documentation to see which official observation will be used.
The platform will specify the authoritative station(s) or data source used for settlement; common sources include National Weather Service observations or designated official weather stations, but check the market page to see which location(s) apply for this event.
Many markets use the local calendar day (e.g., 00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the specified date, but the exact interval for observation and settlement is defined by the exchange—confirm the precise window in the market’s rules.
Close and settlement timing are set by the exchange and may be listed as TBD until the platform finalizes them; settlement typically occurs after the authoritative observational data for the date are released—check the market page for updates.
Treat the market as a real-time, crowd-sourced indicator that incorporates many sources of information; use it alongside official forecasts (NWS, local meteorologists), short-range radar, and model output, especially in the 1–3 days before March 22 when forecasts become more precise.