| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be observed in New York City on March 21, 2026. It matters because short-term weather events affect transportation, outdoor plans, event logistics, and local demand for weather-sensitive services.
Late-March in New York is a transition period between winter and spring with highly variable conditions: storms can still bring rain or mixed precipitation, while dry stretches are also common. Interannual variability and evolving large-scale weather patterns (e.g., mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters) drive whether a given date is wet or dry, and climate trends have altered seasonal baselines without determining day-to-day outcomes.
Market prices aggregate participant information and forecasts; they reflect collective expectations about whether rain will occur on the specified NYC observation day. Use prices as a real-time signal that complements, but does not replace, official meteorological forecasts and observations.
The market's settlement rules will specify the precise definition used for 'rain' (for example whether trace precipitation counts and whether mixed precipitation qualifies). Consult the contract's official settlement language on the market page to see the exact criterion.
The contract will list the official observing station(s) or network used for settlement (commonly an NWS/NOAA airport or regional climate station). Check the market's settlement details to see which NYC station or combination of stations is authoritative for this event.
The market's rules will define the temporal window (typically a local calendar day, e.g., 00:00–23:59 local time, but this can vary). Review the contract's settlement section for the exact start and end times used to determine the outcome.
Settlement usually occurs after the relevant official observations for March 21, 2026 are released and verified; the exchange/operator will post the final outcome and settlement data on the market page and in any official settlement notices. The market page will show the settlement timestamp and source once available.
Track short-range model runs (0–3 day ensembles), high-resolution convection-allowing models, radar and satellite nowcasts as the date approaches, and official NWS forecasts for the NYC area; also monitor changes in storm track and timing, temperature profiles, and local coastal effects that can influence whether precipitation reaches the city.