| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 20, 2026. The outcome matters for travel, outdoor events around the spring equinox, and planning for weather-sensitive activities in the city.
March 20 falls near the climatological spring equinox, a transitional period when the northeastern U.S. frequently sees variable weather driven by frontal passages and coastal systems. New York City March weather can range from late-season snow to mild, wet days depending on the track and timing of storms; seasonal factors such as large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns influence tendencies but do not determine the weather on a single day.
Market odds summarize collective expectations based on current forecasts, model runs, and new information and will change as meteorological data arrive. Use them as a real-time indicator of market sentiment rather than as a static forecast.
The authoritative definition is set in the contract's settlement rules on KALSHI; settlement typically depends on measurable precipitation recorded at the contract’s specified official observation site (e.g., an NWS station). Check the event page for the exact station and the minimum measurement threshold used for determining 'rain.'
The event page currently shows the market close as TBD; KALSHI will list the official close time on the contract. Settlement normally occurs after the designated station's daily observation for March 20 is published, which may be later that day or shortly thereafter per the contract rules.
Settlement typically relies on official meteorological observations from the designated station(s) named in the contract, commonly NWS ASOS/ASOS or cooperative stations in the NYC area; consult the event page for the exact data source used for settlement.
Broad seasonal signals can influence expectations weeks ahead, but synoptic-scale precipitation forecasts that move markets usually become meaningful about 7–10 days out, with the highest resolution and convergence of model guidance appearing in the 1–3 days before the target date.
Localized convective showers, coastal convergence or sea-breeze timing, rapid shifts in frontal timing, microclimates across boroughs, and the exact placement of the observation station relative to precipitation areas can all produce discrepancies between forecasts, market sentiment, and the actual settlement outcome.