| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 7% | 2¢ | 10¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 2, 2026. It matters for planners, commuters, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk or hedging weather-dependent exposures.
Early March in New York is a transitional period between winter and spring, so precipitation can arrive as rain, snow, or a mix depending on the temperature profile and storm track. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by synoptic-scale systems (coastal storms, frontal passages) and shorter-term model guidance; longer-term climate trends can alter intensity statistics but not the timing of any single event.
Market odds summarize the collective expectation of traders and will move as meteorological models, observations, and forecasts update. Always read the contract’s settlement rules to understand exactly what measurement, station, threshold, and time window determine the official outcome.
Check the contract settlement clause. 'Rain' is typically defined by a measurable amount of liquid-equivalent precipitation at a specified official observing site and during a defined time window; small or 'trace' amounts may be excluded depending on the contract language.
The market page or contract terms list the official data source and the exact start/end times used to determine the outcome. Many weather contracts reference National Weather Service observations at an official NYC station, but you must confirm the specific source named by this event.
The closing time is listed as TBD. Platforms commonly close markets before the event starts or at a pre-specified cutoff — check the platform’s market page for the definitive close time and any late-trading rules.
Use longer-range guidance for general risk 5–7 days out, then shift attention to ensemble spreads and deterministic models within 3 days; in the final 48 hours, radar and short-range models provide the most reliable timing and precipitation type information.
Whether snow or mixed precipitation counts depends on the contract’s measurement definition — some contracts use liquid-equivalent precipitation so snow can satisfy a 'rain' outcome if melted and measured as liquid, while others explicitly require liquid precipitation. Verify the contract settlement rules.