| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable precipitation will occur anywhere in New York City on March 19, 2026, a question relevant to commuters, event planners, and infrastructure managers who need to anticipate weather impacts. Market prices synthesize public forecasts and participant expectations into a real-time signal about that day’s rainfall prospects.
March in New York City is a transitional month when cold and mild air masses both occur, so weather can swing between dry, rainy, and sometimes wintry conditions. Large-scale drivers—mid-latitude storm systems, coastal lows (including nor'easters), and frontal passages—have historically produced the majority of single-day precipitation events; seasonal trends and long-term climate change have altered the frequency and intensity of precipitation but do not determine the weather on any specific date. Short-range weather models and ensemble forecasts become much more informative as the date approaches.
Prediction market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders who incorporate weather model outputs, observational data, and news into their positions; they update as new information arrives but are not guarantees. Use market prices alongside official meteorological forecasts and local warnings when making decisions tied to this specific date.
Resolution is based on the contract’s specified authoritative meteorological data source; consult the market's rules or the event page to see whether it uses specific NOAA observation stations, a consolidated NYC rainfall dataset, or another designated source.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform will publish an explicit trading-close timestamp prior to the event—check the market listing for updates and any final trading or settlement windows.
Deterministic forecasts and high-resolution models generally become much more informative within about 1–7 days of the date, while signals beyond that are probabilistic and rely on ensemble spread; market expectations typically tighten as short-range model agreement improves.
The precise geographic and measurement definition is set by the contract; many weather contracts use official reporting stations or an aggregated city-area definition, so review the event rules to confirm whether resolution checks borough-wide observations, a network of stations, or a single designated site.
Yes—public announcements, scheduled large gatherings, and operational decisions can prompt traders to update expectations because such events increase attention to short-term forecasts and can generate additional information flow that moves market prices ahead of or during the event.