| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will be recorded in New York City on March 18, 2026. It matters because weather outcomes affect travel, outdoor events, and commercial activity and can be hedged or speculated on via the market.
Mid‑March in New York City is a transitional period with a wide range of possible conditions—from late winter storms to mild, dry days—so forecasts can change substantially as the date approaches. Forecast skill improves as the event approaches: large‑scale model guidance dominates at longer lead times, while short‑range observations and high‑resolution models become more important in the 48–72 hours before the date.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of traders and forecasters based on available data and can move rapidly as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat the market as a real‑time signal of current expectations, not a guarantee of outcome.
Settlement typically follows the event's official rules and an authoritative observing source; 'rain' usually means measurable liquid precipitation recorded by that source during the event window. Check the market's settlement rules to confirm the exact definition and observation instrument.
The market should specify the official observation location or data source used for settlement; many weather products use an official station (for example, the NWS climate station in Central Park) or a specified set of observation sites. Review the event page or rules to see which geographic point or dataset will be used.
Time windows vary by market; commonly the entire calendar day in local time is used (from 00:00 to 23:59 local), but you should confirm the precise start and end times stated in the event's settlement criteria.
Settlement will occur after official observations for the specified source are available and the platform applies its stated rules. The exact timing and data feed used for settlement (e.g., NWS reports, automated station logs) should be listed on the event page.
Track medium‑range model guidance for broad storm signals, then shift to short‑range models, radar, satellite, and local forecasts within 72 hours of the date; pay attention to forecast timing, front positions, and model consensus or divergence to judge changing odds.