| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 17, 2026. The outcome matters for event planners, commuters, and traders hedging weather exposure.
March is a transitional month in the Northeast when late-winter storms, coastal systems, and early spring disturbances can all produce precipitation in NYC. Forecast certainty increases substantially in the days before the date as short-range models and observations converge. The market closes and resolves according to the exchange's published event text and designated observation sources (closes: TBD).
Market prices summarize the collective expectation that measurable rain will occur on the specified date; they update as forecast models, satellite/radar observations, and synoptic analyses change. Prices are a real-time signal of belief, not a guarantee of the meteorological outcome.
Resolution follows the exchange's official event text and designated data source; typically the market uses recorded precipitation at the specified observing station and a stated measurable-precipitation criterion. Check the market's event page for the precise definition and threshold.
The exchange will list the official reporting station(s) or data provider on the market page or rulebook (for example, a National Weather Service station or an airport METAR). Refer to that specified source for the authoritative record.
The market uses the time window defined in its event text; if not explicitly stated, many weather markets use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time). Confirm the exact resolution window on the event page.
That depends on the market's resolution language. Some markets count any liquid-equivalent precipitation while others require precipitation explicitly classified as rain. Check the event's rules and the reporting station's precipitation categories.
Short-range forecast model runs, ensemble spread, radar and satellite observations, and surface reports all influence traders' expectations; as a result, market prices typically move and volatility often declines as the date nears and model agreement improves.