| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rainfall will occur in New York City on March 16, 2026. It matters because short-term weather outcomes influence many daily activities and can be traded as a binary event in weather markets.
March is a transition month in the northeastern U.S., so conditions can range from lingering winter storms to milder, wetter systems; large-scale patterns and storm tracks determine whether a given day is wet or dry. Climate trends have altered precipitation variability, but individual-day outcomes remain driven by weather systems and short-term forecasts.
Prediction market prices aggregate traders’ views and new information (forecasts, observations) into a single indicator of collective expectation for this specific date. Prices will move as model guidance, radar, and official forecasts change in the days and hours before March 16, 2026.
Most contracts treat 'rain' as measurable liquid precipitation recorded at the designated official observation site during the specified date; whether frozen precipitation is counted depends on the exchange's settlement definition, so refer to the contract terms for the precise measurement threshold and precipitation type rules.
The market will be settled using the specific station and 24-hour window named in the contract (commonly an official National Weather Service station and the local calendar day); the exchange's event specification lists the exact station and time zone used for settlement.
Closing time is determined by the exchange and may be listed on the market page; the official outcome is typically determined after the daily official observations are available, which can be several hours to a couple of days after March 16 depending on the data source and settlement procedures.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation (March can be highly variable), but traders should combine climatology with current-season teleconnections and short-range model forecasts because single-day weather is dominated by transient systems.
Watch National Weather Service forecasts from the NYC forecast office, radar and satellite imagery, high-resolution convection-allowing models and ensemble guidance (e.g., ECMWF and GFS ensembles), and the official precipitation observations that will be used for settlement.