| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will fall in New York City on March 15, 2026. It matters for people and businesses with weather-sensitive plans or exposures and for anyone tracking near-term climate variability in a major city.
Mid‑March in NYC is a transitional month between winter and spring, so conditions can vary widely from cold, wintry precipitation to mild, rainy days. Historical climatology shows moderate chance of precipitation in March, but individual-day outcomes depend on the timing and track of synoptic systems. Ongoing climate change can increase the frequency of atypical patterns and rapid swings in temperature and moisture.
Market prices aggregate the expectations of many traders and update as new weather model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Interpret prices as the market’s current consensus expectation, not a deterministic prediction — check the market page for real‑time updates and the contract’s settlement rules.
Settlement depends on the contract’s definition and official data source; typically 'rain' means measurable liquid precipitation recorded at the designated observation station during the event’s specified observation window—check the market’s settlement rules for the precise threshold and definition.
The market’s settlement rules specify the official station and data provider (for example, an NWS/NOAA reporting station). Review the market page or contract documentation to find the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
The close time is listed on the market page and is currently TBD; platforms commonly close trading shortly before the event start. The observation window (e.g., the local calendar day or a specified UTC period) is defined in the settlement rules—confirm those details on the contract page.
Forecast skill is highest in the 0–3 day range and decreases beyond about 7–10 days, so short‑range model runs and real‑time observations are most influential; when the date is far in the future, climatology and seasonal patterns play a larger role until synoptic forecasts become available.
That depends on the contract wording. If the contract specifies 'rain' it may require liquid precipitation; if it specifies 'any precipitation' or uses a total precipitation threshold, snow or sleet may count. Check the exact settlement definition to know how frozen precipitation is treated.