| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 14, 2026; it matters for people and businesses exposed to weather risk (transportation, events, outdoor services) and for traders speculating on near-term weather outcomes.
March is a transitional month in the Northeast, with a mix of late-winter storms and milder spring systems; interannual variability and shifting large-scale patterns can produce wet or dry conditions on any given calendar day. Forecasts evolve rapidly as the event approaches, so market prices will typically respond to new model runs and observations in the days before March 14.
Market odds reflect the crowd’s aggregation of available information — climatology, operational forecasts, and trader views — and will change as new meteorological data arrive; interpret them as a dynamic snapshot of market expectation, not a guaranteed outcome.
Settlement depends on the contract's precise definition: many weather contracts use 'measurable liquid precipitation' recorded at one or more specified official observation sites in the city during the local calendar date. If the contract uses a measurable-precipitation criterion then very light drizzle that registers on the official gauge will count; check the KALSHI contract page for the exact threshold and station list.
The official close time is shown on the contract page (here listed as TBD); outcome settlement typically occurs after the National Weather Service or other specified data provider publishes final daily observations for the date in question. Consult KALSHI’s settlement rules on the event page for the exact close and settlement timelines.
Commonly used sources include National Weather Service surface observations (ASOS/AWOS) at major NYC-area sites (e.g., Central Park, LaGuardia, JFK, Newark) or a specified combination of stations; the contract’s settlement terms list the exact data source and stations that will be used.
Historical climatology for March 14 provides a baseline frequency and typical amounts that help set expectations, but climatology is only a starting point — the actual outcome depends on the meteorological setup for 2026. Use long-term NWS/NCEI records to see how often measurable rain has occurred on that date, then combine that with current forecasts.
Monitor evolving guidance: medium-range models and ensemble trends 5–10 days out set the broad likelihood, while high-resolution and deterministic models (and convective-allowing models) in the 0–3 day window refine timing and local coverage. Pay attention to shifts in storm track, frontal timing, and ensemble spread, and consult the contract’s settlement definitions before acting.