| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable precipitation will be recorded in New York City on March 13, 2026. It matters because short‑term weather outcomes affect travel, events, and local operations and because the market aggregates dispersed forecasting information into a single signal.
March is a transitional month in the NYC climate with a wide range of possible conditions—from late winter storms to mild spring days—so day‑to‑day variability can be high. Forecast accuracy improves markedly as the date approaches, with short‑range models and radar being most informative in the 0–3 day window. Market prices will reflect evolving model guidance, observations and participant information up until the market closes (listed as TBD).
Market prices represent the consensus view of participants based on available forecasts and information; they track how expectations change as models, radar and observations update. Use prices together with official forecasts and real‑time observations to form a fuller picture of expectations and uncertainty.
Settlement will be based on the event’s designated official observation source for New York City (typically an official NWS/NOAA station such as the primary NYC ASOS/METAR site); the exchange’s rules specify the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
Most weather markets use the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) for the specified date; the event rules will confirm the precise time zone and window used for settlement.
Whether frozen precipitation counts depends on the market’s definition: some markets require liquid precipitation specifically, while others count any measurable precipitation or liquid‑equivalent totals. Check the event rules for the exact settlement criterion.
The market close is listed as TBD; settlement typically occurs after official observations are published, often within 24–72 hours of the event date once the exchange verifies the observation source.
Use a combination of deterministic short‑range models, ensemble forecasts to gauge uncertainty, real‑time radar and satellite to track precipitation onset, and official NWS updates; pay special attention in the 0–3 day window when high‑resolution guidance and radar trends become most predictive.