| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rainfall will be observed in New York City on March 12, 2026. The outcome matters for planners, commuters, outdoor events, and anyone trading on weather-linked risks.
March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., so synoptic systems, coastal storms, and temperature variability all influence whether precipitation falls as rain, sleet, or snow. Forecast confidence typically increases in the 48–72 hours before a target date as model ensembles, radar, and surface observations come into alignment.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s aggregate assessment of the chance of measurable rain given available forecasts and information; they update as new meteorological data, model runs, and observations arrive. Treat market prices as a continuously updating signal, not a guaranteed outcome.
Resolution typically relies on reports from official weather-observing stations or NWS records for NYC; 'rain' generally means measurable liquid precipitation recorded during the local calendar day. Consult the event's official rule text for the exact reporting station and minimum threshold used to determine the outcome.
The event page shows the close time as TBD; outcome determination normally occurs after the end of the local calendar day once official observational data are available. Check the specific event's timing and resolution rules for exact closure and settlement procedures.
Resolution commonly relies on official sources such as National Weather Service observations, METAR reports from NYC-area airports, and local climate stations. The event’s rule text specifies the definitive source and station used for settlement.
Short-range model runs, radar trends, and surface observations typically have the largest impact in the 24–72 hours before the date, driving rapid price adjustments as uncertainty shrinks and timing/intensity of precipitation becomes clearer.
Historical frequency provides contextual background about typical March variability, but each year's synoptic setup and short-term forecasts are the dominant drivers for the specific 2026 date; traders typically weigh climatology as a baseline and prioritize current model and observational information.