| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 11, 2026; the outcome matters for travel, events, and short-term economic activity in the city.
March is a transitional month in New York, with a mix of late-winter storms and milder spring systems; day-to-day conditions can shift quickly depending on the passage of fronts or coastal lows. Climate trends have increased the frequency of heavy precipitation events over decades, but short-range weather forecasts and storm tracks remain the primary drivers of whether any given day will see rain. This market is hosted on KALSHI and displays current trading interest (total volume traded listed on the event page).
Market prices aggregate traders' information and forecasts into a single real-time signal; use them as a snapshot of collective expectations that can change rapidly as new model runs and observations arrive.
Settlement depends on the data source and definition specified on the KALSHI event page; many weather markets rely on official National Weather Service observations at a named station and distinguish between a trace and measurable precipitation, so check the event description for the exact measurement and source.
The market's settlement window (for example, local calendar day midnight-to-midnight Eastern Time) will be specified in the event details on KALSHI; always verify the event page to confirm the timezone and start/end times used for determination.
Common official stations include Central Park (NYC consolidated climate site) and area airports like LaGuardia or JFK; the event page will list which station or official data source KALSHI will use for settlement.
Synoptic signals can be identified several days ahead, but highest forecast skill is generally in the short range (about 1–3 days); however, rapidly changing model runs and small shifts in storm track can materially alter the outlook, so traders often watch updates closely in the 48–72 hours before the target date.
Volume indicates liquidity and trader engagement: higher volume generally means tighter markets and more information reflected in the price, while lower volume can imply wider spreads and more sensitivity to single trades; volume itself does not determine the weather outcome, and you should also review the event settlement rules and data sources.