| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
This market asks whether measurable rain will occur in New York City on March 10, 2026. It matters because weather outcomes are resolved against objective observations and short-term forecasts can change expectations rapidly, making this a useful event for trading weather risk and information.
March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., so New York City can experience a wide range of outcomes from cold, dry days to rain-producing frontal systems or Nor'easters. Historical variability and the influence of large-scale climate patterns mean that both seasonal climatology and short-range weather model guidance are relevant to this event.
Market prices reflect traders integrating current forecasts, observations, and climatology into a consensus view; interpret prices as a snapshot of collective expectation that will update as new meteorological data arrive. For settlement rules and the exact observation source, consult the contract's official resolution details on the platform.
The contract will be resolved according to the platform's published settlement rules, which typically specify a measurement threshold and an official observation source (for example, a particular NWS station or airport). Check the event's resolution rules on the market page for the exact definition used here.
Closure and settlement timing are set by the market operator; if the event page lists 'TBD' for close, consult the market interface or the platform's rules for updates. Settlement usually occurs after official observations for the event date become available.
Traders typically monitor operational forecast models (e.g., global models and high-resolution regional models), ensemble forecasts, National Weather Service discussions, radar and satellite trends, and official station observations for NYC as the date approaches.
That depends on the contract's resolution criteria. Some contracts count any measurable liquid-equivalent precipitation, others require liquid-phase precipitation specifically. Verify the contract's precise settlement language to determine how mixed precipitation is treated.
Historical climatology for early March provides a baseline expectation and helps gauge typical variability, but it should be combined with evolving short-range forecasts and model guidance because synoptic conditions that determine precipitation can change rapidly in the days before the event.