| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether measurable precipitation will be recorded in New York City on April 3, 2026. Weather-based prediction markets allow participants to hedge against risks associated with outdoor activities and climate volatility.
April in New York City is historically a transitional month characterized by variable weather patterns and frequent spring showers. The outcome is determined by official data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) for Central Park, which serves as the standard reference point for NYC climate reporting.
Market valuations reflect the collective assessment of meteorological conditions based on long-range climate models and historical trends for the New York area.
The market relies on official historical data recorded at the Central Park observation site.
Any measurable precipitation, typically defined as at least 0.01 inches of liquid accumulation, qualifies as a 'yes' result.
A 'trace' of precipitation (less than 0.01 inches) is generally considered no rain for the purposes of this specific contract.
The date is defined by the Eastern Time zone, covering the 24-hour period from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM on April 3, 2026.
No; long-range forecasts cannot predict specific daily weather with certainty, which is why the market relies on historical climatology and probabilistic modeling.