| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain in NYC | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks whether measurable precipitation will occur in New York City on April 2, 2026. Weather derivatives like this allow participants to hedge against or speculate on meteorological uncertainty.
New York City’s climate in early April is characterized by the transition from late winter to spring, often featuring volatile weather patterns. Historical data suggests the region experiences frequent spring showers during this month due to shifting pressure systems moving across the Northeast corridor.
Market prices represent the aggregate expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of rain, incorporating both long-range climate forecasts and historical climatological norms.
The market typically relies on data from the official National Weather Service observation station located in Central Park, New York City.
Generally, any measurable liquid precipitation recorded at the designated reporting station qualifies, regardless of total volume.
The event refers to the 24-hour period spanning April 2, 2026, in the Eastern Time Zone.
The definition of 'rain' versus 'precipitation' depends on the specific contract rules; typically, liquid equivalent of frozen precipitation may be counted depending on the official settlement criteria.
Market settlement is usually contingent on the 'official' daily rainfall total being greater than zero as reported by the NWS, excluding 'trace' amounts.