| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $805K | Trade → |
| Pam Bondi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $662K | Trade → |
| Howard Lutnick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $563K | Trade → |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $303K | Trade → |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $198K | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $96K | Trade → |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| John Ratcliffe | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| Chris Wright | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Susie Wiles | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $40K | Trade → |
| Sean Duffy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| Linda McMahon | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Scott Bessent | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Scott Turner | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Doug Burgum | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Mike Waltz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Lee Zeldin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Jamieson Greer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Kelly Loeffler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Brooke Rollins | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Doug Collins | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Russell Vought | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Michael Kratsios | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
This market asks which member of President Trump's Cabinet will be the next to leave office and aggregates trader expectations about that event. Cabinet turnover can signal shifts in policy direction, management priorities, and political vulnerability, so the outcome is closely watched by observers and participants.
Cabinet positions include the heads of executive departments and certain cabinet-level officials; departures can occur through resignation, dismissal, removal following legal action, or other reasons. The Trump era has been characterized by relatively frequent senior-staff and cabinet changes, so markets on "who leaves next" reflect ongoing information flows, media coverage, and internal White House dynamics. Because the market lists a fixed set of named outcomes, its composition and relevance depend on the roster of officials at the time the market was created.
Market prices represent the crowd's consensus about who is most likely to leave next given current information, and they update as new developments appear. Treat prices as a real-time aggregation of signals (news, leaks, controversies, scheduling) rather than a definitive prediction — events can change rapidly.
For this event, 'leaving' generally means an official no longer holds the cabinet position in question, whether due to resignation, dismissal, removal following legal or disciplinary action, or death. The market resolves based on the official change of status; consult the event's official resolution rules on the Kalshi event page for the definitive timing and language.
The 24 outcomes correspond to the named cabinet secretaries and designated cabinet-level officials listed on the event page at market launch. Check the event roster on Kalshi to see which specific individuals are tradable in this market.
Simultaneous or near-simultaneous departures are resolved according to the platform's timestamp and tie-breaking rules; the official whose vacancy is recorded first (by the market operator's resolution criteria) typically determines the winner. Refer to the event's resolution policy on Kalshi for the exact tie-break procedure.
Most markets treat the effective date when the official ceases to hold the office (the stated effective resignation/termination date), not the announcement date. Confirm the treatment of announcement versus effective date in the event's official rules on the Kalshi page.
Outcome lists are typically fixed at market launch, so newly nominated or acting officials usually are not added unless the market operator explicitly amends the event. Check the event description or market updates on Kalshi to see whether and how the roster may be changed after launch.