| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $805K | Trade → |
| Pam Bondi | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $662K | Trade → |
| Howard Lutnick | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $563K | Trade → |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $303K | Trade → |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $198K | Trade → |
| Pete Hegseth | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $96K | Trade → |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $75K | Trade → |
| John Ratcliffe | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $53K | Trade → |
| Chris Wright | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $48K | Trade → |
| Susie Wiles | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $40K | Trade → |
| Sean Duffy | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $36K | Trade → |
| Marco Rubio | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| Linda McMahon | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Scott Bessent | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $33K | Trade → |
| Scott Turner | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $27K | Trade → |
| Doug Burgum | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| Mike Waltz | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| Lee Zeldin | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| Jamieson Greer | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Kelly Loeffler | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| Brooke Rollins | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| Doug Collins | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $17K | Trade → |
| Russell Vought | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| Michael Kratsios | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
This market tracks which member of President Trump’s Cabinet will be the next to depart their position, whether through resignation, termination, or retirement. It serves as a real-time barometer for political instability and internal executive branch personnel shifts.
Cabinet stability is a hallmark of administrative endurance, and high turnover rates often signal internal policy disagreements, political scandals, or strategic realignments. Historically, administration officials may face increased scrutiny due to evolving legislative priorities or public pressure. Tracking these exits provides insight into the president's governing strategy and the cohesion of their inner circle.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of political analysts and participants regarding the relative job security of specific Cabinet members. Movements in these prices often correlate with breaking news, legislative setbacks, or shifts in executive branch policy.
An official departure occurs when a confirmed Cabinet-level secretary resigns, is removed, or is announced to be stepping down from their post by the White House.
Generally, if a secretary remains within the Cabinet in a different role, they have not 'left' the Cabinet; however, exiting the Cabinet entirely to take a non-Cabinet position qualifies as a departure.
This market specifically tracks Senate-confirmed Cabinet secretaries; acting heads may be excluded depending on the specific market resolution criteria.
The market remains active until a clear departure occurs or the market closes; standard turnover processes are governed by formal resignation or termination announcements.
Yes, both voluntary resignations and involuntary terminations result in a 'departure' for the purposes of this market.