| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks whether former President Donald Trump will make a physical visit to Iran; the outcome would carry significant diplomatic and political implications. Market trading aggregates participants' judgments about that possibility over time.
U.S.–Iran relations have been strained for decades, and visits by senior U.S. officials to Tehran are rare and politically sensitive. A trip by Donald Trump would be historically notable because he has been a high-profile, polarizing figure with extensive media coverage and ongoing political ties in the U.S.; any real-world movement toward a visit would reflect changes in bilateral willingness, security arrangements, and domestic politics in both countries.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of traders based on available information and will move as new developments occur; they are not certainties but can signal how participants update expectations. Consult the market's contract text and trade history to understand what specific conditions or time windows the outcomes represent.
Typically a 'visit' refers to a physical, in‑person trip to territory administered by Iran; transits through an airport without entering Iran, phone calls, or meetings held outside Iran generally do not count. Always check the contract text on the platform for the market's precise definition.
The market's close date is listed as TBD, and outcome windows (if time‑bounded) are set in the contract specification. Check the platform's event page or contract details for any updates on closing time and precise outcome definitions.
The market has four distinct outcome buckets as defined by the contract (for example, different time windows or categorical possibilities). Review the event's outcome labels on the trading interface to understand which scenarios each outcome represents before trading.
Material movers include formal invitations or rejections from Iranian officials, credible reports of travel arrangements or security clearances, high‑level diplomatic contacts or mediation efforts, and clear public statements by Trump or Iranian leaders either committing to or ruling out a visit.
Whether a private trip counts depends on the contract wording; some markets count any physical presence in Iran by the named individual, while others specify 'official' or 'state' visits. Confirm the contract's criteria to determine if unofficial travel qualifies.