| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before June 1, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether U.S. Representative Cory Mills will leave the House of Representatives before the upcoming midterm elections; the outcome matters because an incumbent departure can trigger a special election and alter local and national campaign dynamics.
Cory Mills is the sitting member of the House for his district and his tenure, public statements, and any developments affecting his ability or decision to serve determine whether he remains in office through the midterms. Members of Congress sometimes leave midterm for reasons such as appointments to other positions, private-sector opportunities, health issues, legal troubles, or expulsion; each path has different political and procedural consequences.
Market prices reflect the collective, continually updated expectations of participants about whether Mills will vacate his seat before the midterms; they move as new, credible information appears and are signals, not guarantees, of future events.
The market is resolved based on an actual vacancy before the midterms: resignation effective before the midterms, expulsion by the House, or death in office. Temporary absences, leaves of absence, or announced plans to leave after the midterms do not count unless the seat is vacated before the midterm date.
House vacancies are filled according to state law, typically via a special election called under the governor’s authority; there is no temporary gubernatorial appointment to the U.S. House, and exact timelines depend on state procedures and scheduling.
No — only departures that result in an empty House seat before the midterm election date trigger the event. A resignation effective after the midterms does not meet the market condition.
Definitive developments such as an official resignation letter, credible reporting of imminent resignation or appointment, verified health crises, formal disciplinary action or expulsion votes, or legal filings and indictments typically drive rapid market movement.
A 'TBD' close means the exchange has not yet set a firm market close; resolution will follow the exchange’s published rules and will be based on publicly verifiable evidence of a vacancy before the midterm cutoff. Traders should monitor official statements and the exchange’s announcements for the exact closing and resolution criteria.