| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before March 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Resolved |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether Congress will successfully override a veto issued by President Trump; the outcome determines whether the vetoed measure becomes law despite the President's objections. Overrides are rare and can reshape policy and political dynamics, so market signals on this question matter to observers and participants.
Under the Constitution, Congress can attempt to override a presidential veto, but doing so requires a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate. Whether an override succeeds depends on the substance of the vetoed measure, party control and cohesion in each chamber, procedural timing, and political incentives facing individual members. Historical practice shows overrides are relatively uncommon because they require broad, often bipartisan, support.
Market prices in this market reflect the aggregate expectations of participants about the override outcome and update as new information—votes, leadership statements, public pressure, or schedule changes—arrives. Treat those odds as a real-time signal of perceived likelihood, not a guarantee of final legislative behavior.
The market typically distinguishes (1) a successful override by both chambers, (2) a sustained veto because one or both chambers fail to reach the required two-thirds, and (3) an intermediate result such as an override in one chamber but not the other, which leaves the veto sustained overall.
The President returns the bill with a veto message to the originating chamber, that chamber votes on whether to override, and if it reaches two-thirds the bill proceeds to the other chamber for a similar two-thirds vote; if both chambers reach two-thirds, the veto is overridden and the bill becomes law.
If Congress adjourns in a manner that prevents return of a vetoed bill within constitutional timelines, the President can effectively exercise a pocket veto; otherwise, scheduled floor time and leadership decisions about when to bring override votes determine whether and when an override can be attempted.
Key players include party leaders in the House and Senate, party whips responsible for vote counts, swing or moderate members whose defections are pivotal, and influential committee chairs or interest groups that can mobilize support or opposition.
Yes. Congress can introduce revised legislation that addresses objections, pursue alternative statutory paths, attach provisions to other bills, or wait for a future Congress or different executive configuration; failure to override one veto does not permanently foreclose legislative options.