| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether federal legislation providing explicit banking and insurance protections for cannabis-related businesses will be enacted into law during 2026. The outcome matters because such a law would change how banks and insurers can serve state-legal cannabis companies across the U.S.
Congress has considered measures to reduce legal and regulatory risk for financial institutions and insurers that work with cannabis businesses; related bills have advanced in the House in prior sessions but have faced hurdles in the Senate and in final enactment. Advocacy from the cannabis industry, banking and insurance trade groups, along with competing legislative priorities and enforcement stances from federal agencies, shape the legislative landscape.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of whether a qualifying federal statute will be enacted during the 2026 calendar year; they are not guarantees and can shift rapidly as new developments occur.
For the market to resolve as 'Yes', a federal statute that provides explicit banking and/or insurance protections for cannabis-related businesses must be enacted into law during the 2026 calendar year. Enactment means the text cleared both chambers of Congress and became law through presidential signature or another constitutionally valid enactment process within 2026.
No. Passage by only the House or only the Senate does not by itself make a bill law. The statutory protections must be enacted—i.e., both chambers must approve the final text and it must become law during 2026—for the market to resolve as a realization of the event.
Key actors typically include leaders and members of the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee, relevant Judiciary committees (for legal language), and chamber leadership that controls floor scheduling. Appropriations or other leadership can also be decisive if protections are attached to larger must-pass bills.
After Congress passes a final bill, the President can sign it into law or veto it. A veto blocks enactment unless Congress overrides it by the constitutionally required margin. For this event, a signature (or successful override) within 2026 is required for a 'Yes' outcome.
No. Agency guidance, enforcement memoranda, or regulatory rulemaking do not equate to enactment of a federal statute. This event specifically concerns whether statutory protections are enacted into law during 2026.