| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any individual who served as a political appointee under President Trump will be formally found in contempt of court during the current calendar year. Such an outcome would signal a judicial enforcement action against a former or current Trump appointee and has legal and political implications.
Contempt of court occurs when a judge finds that an individual disobeyed a court order or otherwise interfered with the administration of justice; findings can be civil or criminal and may carry fines or jail time. 'Trump political appointee' generally refers to individuals appointed to federal political offices during the Trump administration (including Senate‑confirmed officials, many noncareer senior executives, ambassadors, and acting appointees). High‑profile litigation, subpoenas, and enforcement orders affecting former administration officials have created situations where contempt findings are possible.
Market prices reflect trader assessments of whether a contempt finding will occur within the stated time window; interpret prices as aggregated market sentiment rather than legal verdicts. Because courts, appeals, and procedural developments evolve, market impressions can change quickly as new filings or orders appear.
The phrase typically means someone who received a political appointment from President Trump to a federal position—this includes Senate‑confirmed officials, many political Senior Executive Service and Schedule C hires, ambassadors, and acting officials who served under the Trump administration; it generally excludes private‑sector aides or campaign staff who were never appointed to a federal office.
A qualifying event would be a court issuing a formal contempt order or judgment (civil or criminal) that names the individual and is entered during the calendar year; mere citations in briefs or nonbinding statements by judges would not typically constitute a formal contempt finding.
Yes. Contempt findings can apply to conduct while in office or to refusal to comply with court orders after leaving office; the key is whether a court enters a formal contempt order naming the person during the year.
A reversal or vacatur changes the final legal status, but the immediate question is whether a court entered a contempt order during the calendar year. Subsequent appellate outcomes may alter the legal consequences, and some resolution procedures consider finality—check the market’s official rules or documentation for how reversals are handled for settlement.
Contempt orders issued by U.S. federal courts and by state courts can all result in a named individual being found in contempt; what matters is a formal judicial order or judgment entered during the calendar year that identifies the Trump appointee.