| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any U.S. Supreme Court Justice will be formally charged with a federal crime before the contract closes. Such an outcome would have major legal and political significance and would affect public perceptions of the Court and DOJ decision-making.
Criminal charges against sitting or former Justices are historically rare and would raise novel separation-of-powers and procedural questions. Federal charging decisions in high-profile matters are driven by DOJ policies, the strength of evidence developed by investigators or grand juries, and institutional constraints such as recusals, statutes of limitation, and political scrutiny.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about the likelihood of at least one federal charging event and will move as new evidence, filings, or official announcements appear. Use prices as a real‑time signal of changing expectations rather than a legal determination.
A formal federal charging instrument filed in U.S. federal court—such as an indictment or criminal information—alleging violations of federal criminal law against an individual who meets the market's definition of a Supreme Court Justice; arrests or public accusations without a federal filing typically do not qualify. Consult the market's official rules for the event's precise legal definition.
No. State charges are separate state‑law proceedings and congressional impeachment/removal is a political process; this market is limited to federal criminal charges filed in federal court.
Federal charges would be brought by the U.S. Department of Justice—either a U.S. attorney's office, the main DOJ, or a DOJ‑appointed special counsel—through a formal filing in federal court.
Whether former or retired justices count depends on the market's specific wording. Some contracts define 'Supreme Court Justice' as any person who has held the office, while others limit it to sitting justices; check the event description or ask the market operator for the official interpretation.
A qualifying federal charging document must be filed before the market's official close time to count. This particular market currently shows a closing time of 'TBD', so traders should monitor the event page for an announced deadline and any settlement notes from the operator.