| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether any sitting member of the U.S. Congress will be formally expelled before 2027. It matters because expulsion is a consequential, institution-level sanction that can alter chamber composition, party dynamics, and congressional norms.
Expulsion is a constitutional power of each chamber and is distinct from censure, suspension, or criminal conviction; historically it has been used sparingly and typically in response to serious misconduct or disloyalty. Most members who leave office under scandal do so via resignation rather than by formal expulsion, and any pursuit of expulsion usually follows ethics investigations, criminal charges, or intense political pressure.
Market odds reflect the aggregated expectations of traders and update as new public information emerges, but they are signals rather than guarantees. Final settlement hinges on the market's official contract definition and the public record of a formal expulsion vote in the relevant chamber.
Expulsion means formal removal from office by the member's chamber; censure and temporary suspensions are disciplinary but do not meet the technical definition of expulsion. Market settlement will follow the contract's reliance on the chamber's official journal or public record of a formal expulsion vote.
Yes: the phrase covers any sitting member of either the U.S. House of Representatives or the U.S. Senate. An expulsion in either chamber would be relevant to this event, subject to the market's settlement rules.
The phrase denotes any expulsion occurring prior to the market's stated 2027 cutoff; traders should consult the market's official contract text for the exact cutoff date and timezone used to determine settlement.
A resignation generally prevents a formal expulsion vote from taking place, so an expulsion outcome would not be triggered unless the chamber later conducts and records an expulsion vote. Markets settle on the formal expulsion action, not on underlying charges or resignations.
Key actors include House and Senate ethics committees, chamber leadership (Speaker, Majority/Minority Leaders), party caucus decision‑makers, and prosecutors whose investigations produce charges; public and media pressure can also shape leaders' willingness to bring a vote.