| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2050 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether a supervolcano will produce a qualifying eruption before the year 2050; it matters because a true supervolcanic eruption would have major global climate and societal impacts. Trading aggregates market participants' judgments about the likelihood and timing of such a rare event.
Supervolcanoes are volcanic systems capable of very large, caldera‑forming eruptions (typically classed at the highest eruption magnitudes). Historically such eruptions are extremely infrequent on human timescales, and modern monitoring has improved detection of precursory unrest but cannot predict timing with precision. The market reflects ongoing scientific monitoring, new data releases, and broad uncertainty about when large eruptions may occur.
Market prices summarize trader consensus about whether a qualifying eruption will be confirmed before 2050; they are not deterministic forecasts but evolving signals that update as new observations and scientific assessments appear.
Settlement depends on the market operator's published event definition; generally a 'supervolcano' refers to a system capable of a very large, caldera‑forming eruption (often characterized as VEI 8), and an 'eruption' would need to meet the event's specified geological criteria and be confirmed by authoritative scientific sources.
Well‑known candidates include large caldera systems like Yellowstone (USA), Toba (Indonesia), Taupo (New Zealand), and other long‑lived calderas; the market's outcome depends on whether any qualifying system produces a confirmed eruption meeting the event definition before 2050.
Sustained seismic swarms, rapid and large‑magnitude ground deformation, anomalous gas emissions, major new thermal or satellite signals, or formal scientific advisories indicating escalating unrest could all prompt traders to revise expectations.
Supereruptions are geologically rare with long recurrence intervals, so short‑term prediction is inherently uncertain; historical frequency informs background expectations but does not provide precise short‑term timing.
The close date is listed as TBD; settlement will follow the market operator's rules (Kalshi) and rely on documented confirmation from credible scientific authorities that a qualifying eruption did or did not occur prior to 2050.