| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the New York Stock Exchange will trigger a marketwide circuit breaker at any point during this calendar year. It matters because a marketwide pause is a sign of extreme equity-market stress and can affect portfolios, liquidity, and trading behavior.
Marketwide circuit breakers are exchange-level mechanisms that pause trading across an exchange when broad indexes fall sharply; they were implemented after past market crashes and have been updated over time to address fast, large moves. A trigger typically requires a large, rapid decline in major U.S. equity indexes or other market conditions that prompt the exchange to halt trading to restore order. Whether one occurs in a given year depends on macroeconomic shocks, policy surprises, and market microstructure dynamics.
Market odds on this contract reflect how traders collectively price the likelihood of a NYSE-wide trading halt during the calendar year, and they move as new information arrives. Use odds as a real-time summary of market sentiment, not as a guaranteed forecast; they can change quickly around news or volatility spikes.
For this market the outcome is tied to an official NYSE marketwide trading halt or pause that is announced by the exchange as applying broadly across listed equities; single-stock or venue-specific local halts do not qualify.
'This year' refers to the current calendar year; if no NYSE-wide circuit breaker is triggered before the end of the calendar year or before the platform sets a different closing/resolution date, the market will resolve based on the platform's published settlement rules.
Settlement will rely on official NYSE communications and market data feeds that document trading halts and exchange notices; publicly available exchange halt announcements are the primary verification source.
No; this market specifically concerns a marketwide circuit breaker on the NYSE. Pauses confined to other exchanges, individual securities, or non-exchange venues do not meet the event definition unless the NYSE itself issues a marketwide halt.
Sudden large negative macro surprises, major geopolitical shocks, fast-moving credit or liquidity stresses, or regulatory announcements affecting market structure or circuit-breaker thresholds would quickly shift market pricing for this contract.