| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| During Trump's term | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether a new amendment will be formally added to the U.S. Constitution during President Trump's term; the outcome matters because constitutional amendments produce durable legal changes and require broad, coordinated political action.
Under Article V the Constitution is amended only after a formal proposal and subsequent ratification by the states, a process that typically involves high legislative thresholds and can take years. Because amendments are rare and require cross-branch and interstate agreement, they depend on both national momentum and state-level cooperation.
Market prices reflect traders' collective assessment of whether the amendment process will complete within the specified term and update as events (legislation, state action, court rulings) occur; they are indicators, not guarantees.
The event requires a proposed amendment to complete the full Article V process and be ratified by the required number of states and formally certified (i.e., entered into the Constitution) during the president's term.
It covers the four-year presidential term defined by the Constitution (from inauguration day to the end of that term); the amendment must be fully ratified and certified within that window to count.
No — a proposal alone does not satisfy the market; final state ratification and formal certification must occur during the specified presidential term.
An amendment can be proposed by Congress with the required supermajority or by a constitutional convention called by the requisite number of state legislatures; state legislatures or ratifying conventions then vote on ratification. The president does not cast a formal vote but can influence political dynamics, and courts may be asked to resolve procedural disputes.
Historically the full amendment process has often taken many months or years; completing it within one term is challenging and typically requires concentrated national momentum, aligned majorities in Congress and many state legislatures, and attention to any ratification deadlines or legal obstacles.