| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 2026 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2027 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before 2028 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether a sitting U.S. cabinet member will be impeached. The outcome matters because impeachment is a major congressional check on the executive branch and can affect governance, oversight, and political dynamics.
Impeachment of executive-branch officials is a constitutional tool by which the House can bring formal charges; removal requires a separate Senate trial and conviction. Historically, impeachment of cabinet-level officials is uncommon and typically follows significant investigative findings, partisan calculation, or political crises. Ongoing investigations, media attention, and congressional priorities shape the backdrop for this market.
Market odds aggregate participants’ assessments of current information and expected future developments; they move as new evidence, hearings, or political incentives emerge. Treat prices as a real-time, consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast—news and congressional actions can change them quickly.
The term generally refers to Senate-confirmed heads of executive departments and any officials the White House designates as cabinet-level; consult the market's contract text or exchange rules for the event's exact operational definition.
In ordinary usage, 'impeached' refers to the House passing articles of impeachment; removal requires a separate Senate conviction. Check the event description for whether settlement uses House action, Senate conviction, or another specific trigger.
A 'TBD' close means the exchange will specify a settlement cutoff later; follow the contract page for updated closing conditions and any retroactive settlement criteria tied to specific dates or congressional actions.
Not automatically—indictments can increase the likelihood of congressional action by producing evidence or political pressure, but impeachment requires a separate congressional process; the market settles based on the contract's defined impeachment trigger.
The House majority controls whether to investigate, draft, and vote on articles of impeachment, while relevant committees conduct inquiries that generate evidence; party incentives, margins, and leadership priorities all shape the feasibility of an impeachment vote.