| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks whether the calendar year 2026 will record the highest global average temperature on record. It matters because the outcome encapsulates near-term climate variability and the ongoing long-term warming trend.
Global annual temperature rankings combine long-term greenhouse gas–driven warming with short-term natural variability such as El Niño/La Niña and volcanic activity. Recent years have clustered near the top of historical records, so a new record year depends on both the continued warming trend and transient climate drivers active in 2026.
Market prices reflect traders' collective judgement about available evidence and near-term signals; interpret them as a dynamic, crowd-sourced indicator of how likely participants think a 2026 record is based on current information.
Resolution follows the market's specified settlement rules, which typically point to one or more official global surface temperature datasets and a defined baseline and cutoff date; check the market contract text for the exact dataset(s) and criteria used to determine the winner.
Common authoritative datasets include NASA GISS, NOAA/NCEI, HadCRUT (UK Met Office and Climatic Research Unit), Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF products; different datasets use slightly different methods and coverage, which can affect year-to-year rankings.
A strong El Niño tends to raise global mean temperatures and increases the chance of a record year, while La Niña tends to suppress global temperatures; market participants monitor forecasts of ENSO conditions as an important near-term signal.
Whether revisions affect settlement depends on the contract's resolution window and rules; some markets use first official annual numbers, while others reference a fixed dataset version or a WMO statement—read the contract’s resolution policy for how late revisions are handled.
The market close is listed as TBD; the final outcome can usually be determined after the official global annual temperature estimate for 2026 is published by the dataset(s) specified in the contract, which often occurs in the months following year-end and may be accompanied by an authoritative summary from scientific agencies.