| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Jolin-Barrette | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Sonia LeBel | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christian Dubé | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Geneviève Guilbault | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Christine Fréchette | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| Bernard Drainville | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which person will win the next leadership election of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), a major provincial party in Quebec. The result matters because the party leader shapes policy direction, cabinet composition (if governing), and the party's electoral strategy in Quebec.
The CAQ is a provincial political party in Quebec whose leadership determines its public platform and legislative priorities. Leadership contests are triggered by a resignation, a leadership review, or other party processes, and they often reshape internal factions and public perception ahead of provincial elections.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and expectations about who will be declared leader, and they update as new information arrives. Interpret outcomes qualitatively—they reflect collective judgment, not official results, and their informativeness depends on liquidity and the flow of reliable information.
The market close is listed as TBD; resolution will depend on the official timing of the CAQ leadership process and the market's stated resolution rules. Watch official CAQ announcements and the market's event page for updates on dates and resolution criteria.
Eligibility depends on the party's rules for that specific contest; leadership elections are commonly decided by registered party members or delegated representatives. Check the CAQ's official rules for membership requirements and any cutoff dates for being eligible to vote.
If a candidate withdraws or is disqualified, markets typically adjust or resolve according to their rules (for example, removing the outcome or reallocating value). If a candidate is acclaimed as leader with no contest, markets would resolve based on the event's resolution policy tied to official confirmation.
Higher trading volume and active participation generally make market prices more informative; low volume (relative to other events) means prices can be more volatile and sensitive to single trades. Consider volume trends and external news when interpreting prices.
Follow the CAQ's official website and communications, provincial news outlets, and official announcements from Elections Québec or the party's returning officer for confirmation of nominations, vote counts, and the declaration of the winner.